Brilliant new talk by my favorite alien engineer, Jean-Marc Jancovici.
If you only have 90 minutes to spare, and you want to understand everything that matters about how the world works, and the nature of our overshoot predicament, and what we need to do to minimize future suffering, then this talk is the best use of your time.
spoiler alert: the answer is no
https://www.media.mit.edu/events/will-technology-save-us-from-climate-change/
Bio:
Jean-Marc Jancovici is an advisor to the French government on climate change and energy as part of the French High Council for Climate. He is a founding partner of Carbon 4, a Paris-based data consultancy specializing in low carbon transition and the physical risks of climate change (www.carbone4.com). He is also the founder and president of The Shift Project, a Paris-based think tank advocating for a low carbon economy (www.theshiftproject.org). Jean-Marc Jancovici also serves as an associate professor at Mines ParisTech.
Abstract:
The thermo-industrial development of our society has been possible due to resource extraction and the transformation of our environment. Unfortunately, it has led to severe environmental consequences that humanity is experiencing around the globe: shifting and unpredictable climate, extreme weather events, and biodiversity collapse. Humanity is paying the consequences for technical and technological progress. Thus, can technology still save us from climate change?
Jean-Marc Jancovici will address this question through the paradigm of energy. He will first detail how modern society is structured around thermal and nuclear energies, and will then discuss the impact of this structure on global climate and society. Finally, Jean-Marc Jancovici will conclude by exploring the trade-offs between economic growth and sustainable climate stewardship.
Slides: https://fr.slideshare.net/JoelleLeconte/jancovici-mit-media-lab-23022021/1
un-Denial 
Interest rate rising, fed not worried, no problem.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/fed-officials-shrug-off-rise-in-longer-term-u-s-bond-yields-idUSKBN2AP2OO
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Benjamin the Donkey today with a new limerick.
http://benjaminthedonkey-limericksofdoom.blogspot.com/2021/02/tired-of-politics.html
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Gail Tverberg says…
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/02/25/why-collapse-occurs-why-it-may-not-be-far-away/
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Richard Heinberg today asks the same question and concludes with the same answer.
https://richardheinberg.com/will-technology-solve-climate-change
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Hey, why all the negativity? The MSM loves Bill Gates, he’s a genius billionaire (one of the wealthiest) (just lucky?) AND he says we can fix this with more research!! (yeah, has he ever heard of Jevon’s Paradox, denial or MPP?). Trust in the MSM is fraying? – not among people around me 😦 .
AJ
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Hopium at any price
Flood-prone Miami to spend billions tackling sea level rise
“We must continue to focus on restoration, preservation and protection of this sacred space,” she told a news conference.
“And so we will be together investing billions of dollars… in our infrastructure so that we can lift this community and others that are so affected by sea level rise,” she added.”
https://phys.org/news/2021-02-flood-prone-miami-billions-tackling-sea.html
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Sea level will rise faster than previously thought, researchers show
“The level of the sea is monitored meticulously, and we can compare the responsiveness in models with historical data. The comparison shows that former predictions of sea level have been too conservative, so the sea will likely rise more and faster than previously believed.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/02/210202164530.htm
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Bill Gates explains how we’ll be just fine with innovation and careful planning.
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Thanks Bill you fucking cull.
Just write a few security updates for the planet to download & everything will be fine.
Hey Bill, maybe ‘we’ will reintroduce a disruptive technology that’s been in storage for a couple of centuries. Perhaps you’ve heard of it – the guillotine. It works by gravity & provides dopamine squirts galore among the peasantry.
Complex Life Threatened
“That one fact alone, as highlighted in the Bradshaw report, describes an enormous hole in the lifeblood of the planet. Wetlands are the “kidneys for the world’s landscape” (a) cleansing water (b) mitigating floods (c) recharging underground aquifers, and (d) providing habitat for biodiversity. What else does that?
Once wetlands are gone, there’s no hope for complex life support systems. And, how will aquifers be recharged? Aquifers are the world’s most important water supply. Yet, NASA says 13 of the planet’s 37 largest aquifers are classified as overstressed because they have almost no new water flowing in to offset usage. No wetlands, no replenishment. Ipso facto, the Middle East is on special alert!”
https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/01/22/complex-life-threatened/
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Do you think Bill Gates is in denial? 🙂 Perhaps after commercials like that he retires to the planning room and moves little Covid and windmill pieces around on a theater of operations board. The “Great Reset” board with a HAL-9000 spitting out statistics and answers to “What if………….” questions. The first round of technological growth is in the process of killing life on earth. Replacing and reworking most everything won’t help and will only add to the burden. We actually need massive downsizing in every respect and then we may avoid extinction. Sort of goes against the grain. I’m not even sure forcing seven billion people into subsistence living or smart city pod living would be enough. Maybe HAL-9000 knows.
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Bill Gates is intelligent and understands energy because he’s read Vaclav Smil’s books. He also understands the threat of climate change and the challenges of doing something about it, as demonstrated by this talk he gave 11 years ago.
In 2006 Gates had high hopes that nuclear might save us, and he thus co-founded TerraPower to accelerate progress. Now 15 years later, TerraPower is still 10 years away from demonstrating feasibility.
https://www.terrapower.com/about/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TerraPower
I suspect that the denial circuit in Gates’ brain has switched on and he now hopes that intermittent low power density (which he understands) solar and wind will save us.
If his denial circuit had not switched on he would have become depressed and unable to function normally.
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No open circuits allowed. That denial circuit is like an on/off switch and well…necessary. For most people. I feel as though I belong to one of those Mystery Cults of Antiquity. I’m pretty sure that breaking the denial circuit qualifies as a frightening initiation ceremony. Desecration of sacred cows, absorption of arcane knowledge…I mean come on, how many people know about pteropods or Canfield Oceans? Actually I almost wrote Canfield Lakes that is how mysterious this stuff is.
That we party of apes could do this much damage in a mere 200 years. That is quite an accomplishment.
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I still remember the exact moment when my denial circuit switched off. I was reading about oil and I realized in an instant that our civilization would collapse as oil depleted. It felt like someone hit me in the guts with a 2″x4″.
I know nothing about Canfield Oceans. Please give us a couple sentence summary of what you’ve learned.
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You would not want to set your time warp back 252 million years ago. Imagine a primordial ocean of your worst nightmare. Stagnant purple water stinking of rotten eggs belching hydrogen sulfide, killing life as we know it. The bog of eternal stench but stretching over the entire planet. That is a Canfield Ocean.
How do you take paradisaical oceans and theoretically turn them into hellish Canfield Oceans? You warm everything up by pumping massive amounts of C02 into the atmosphere which the oceans, especially near the poles, then sequester a large part of. I am grossly simplifying here, but by acidifying and warming the ocean you create ideal conditions for sulfur bacteria. Sulfate reducing bacteria thrive in low oxygen environments. producing large amounts of hydrogen sulfide.
It is theorized that during the Permian Triassic Extinction Event aka the “Great Dying”, oceanic upwelling of H2S released deadly emissions into the atmosphere, poisoning terrestrial plants and animals, weakening the ozone layer, exposing whatever life remains to fatal levels of radiation. And as the hydrogen sulfide in the water column reached the sunlit upper layer of ocean, photosynthetic green and purple sulfur bacteria bloomed profusely. Peter Ward describes it all in “Under a Green Sky.”
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Thanks! Very interesting. Good thing we’re not warming and acidifying the ocean.
I added a quote by you to the sidebar.
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Ya, nothing like that is happening at all.
The Great Dying: Earth’s largest-ever mass extinction is a warning for humanity
By Jeff Berardelli, Katherine Niemczyk
March 4, 2021 / 8:44 PM / CBS News
“Right now our planet is in the midst of what science says is an unprecedented rate of change, unlike anything seen in tens of millions of years. Overconsumption, unsustainable practices and the release of immense amounts of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels are altering our life-sustaining climate at a dangerous pace, oceans are acidifying and losing oxygen, and species are dying off.
But this is not the first time that life on our planet has faced an epic challenge. The worst came a little over 250 million years ago — before dinosaurs walked the earth — in an episode called the Permian-Triassic Mass Extinction, or the Great Dying, when 90% of life in the oceans and 70% of life on land vanished. ”
“Recently, two groundbreaking studies on the Great Dying reveal that the causes of that mass extinction bear some striking similarities to what’s happening today. In fact, in some ways the pace of change, such as the rate of release of greenhouse gases, is much faster today than it was 250 million years ago.”
“In fact, the evidence compiled by scientific research on today’s pace of change is ominous to say the least. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing at a pace 100 times faster than it naturally should. Our planet is warming 10 times faster than it has in 65 million years. Our oceans are acidifying 100 times faster than they have in at least 20 million years, and oxygen dead zones in our oceans have increased tenfold since 1950.”
” You got hit on this side with temperature, on this side with acidification and then finally the knock-out punch came from deoxygenation.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/great-dying-permian-triassic-extinction-event-warning-humanity/
The same thing, LIP’s/volcanism/Deccan traps led to the KT extinction (dinosaurs), not the asteroid.
Recent evidence for another mass extinction with the same MO.
Researchers unearth ‘new’ mass-extinction
New analysis brings total of species extinctions to six
“Here, the researchers observe, the end-Guadalupian extinction event — which affected life on land and in the seas — occurred at the same time as the Emeishan flood-basalt eruption that produced the Emeishan Traps, an extensive rock formation, found today in southern China. The eruption’s impact was akin to those causing other known severe mass extinctions, Rampino says.
“Massive eruptions such as this one release large amounts of greenhouse gases, specifically carbon dioxide and methane, that cause severe global warming, with warm, oxygen-poor oceans that are not conducive to marine life,” he notes.
“In terms of both losses in the number of species and overall ecological damage, the end-Guadalupian event now ranks as a major mass extinction, similar to the other five,” the authors write.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/09/190909105555.htm
In a way, all these calamities gave rise to us. Now it’s time for earth to shed it’s skin once again. People will claim “it’s not the same, not natural”, but I beg to differ. The earth made the humans the same as it made volcanic traps. Nothing could be more natural.
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Mr. Gates should not be so worried about what those displaced by the new ec0nomy will do. They will become farmers. It’s win-win. People employed and less energy used to grow food. The lower incomes are but a small problem.
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I worked on a farm that used zero diesel. Among other tasks, I scythed and threshed grains and legumes by hand, and hilled and harvested potatoes by hand. You can do it, but it’s very hard work, and I doubt you could feed 8 billion people.
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And that’s the energy problem with feeding 8 billion. Now throw on drastic climate change (like some of us in the PNW had last year) and that farming and the food that it produces becomes even more difficult to provide. (The 7 days of smoke blotted out skies with no sun really crimps the yields of produce – if it doesn’t kill the plants).
AJ
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Smoke blotted skies..pah. Concern with life sustaining food is inconsequential folderol. Think of drear summer days as an opportunity. Go rent a villa like the Shelley’s, Lord Byron and Polidori did when Mt. Tambora blew in 1816 and unleash your imagination. It’s how we got Frankenstein.
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You’re undoubtedly right, but there will be work for everyone able.
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Obesity and boredom will disappear. 🙂
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Okay, I’m not saying I want the world to burn but I could stand to lose a few pounds.
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What kind of farming I wonder? Vertical farming? Recently read that a 1/3 of the farmland in the US cornbelt has lost its topsoil. Top soil erosion is a huge problem.
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Smart people continue to disagree on whether it’ll end in deflation or inflation.
Tim Morgan thinks inflation. I wonder if he reads un-denial?
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2021/03/03/192-the-great-dilemma/
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Ideas 3 March 2021 John Gray
Can humanity conquer the virus?
Evolution has always been indifferent to the myth of inevitable human progress. Now, in the age of Covid-19, it has turned against us.
” A mutating virus is destroying a world-view that has ruled governments, business and popular culture for a century or more. A model in which humankind was achieving ever higher levels of control over the planet has shaped much of modern thinking. Evolution has been understood as the ascent from primeval slime to unchallengeable human dominance over all other forms of life.
Fundamentally at odds with the theory of natural selection, this was never more than pseudo-science. Yet from the late 19th century onwards it became a ruling paradigm, captivating generations of thinkers and inspiring world-changing political movements. Today the myth is crumbling. For the first time in history, using genomic sequencing, natural selection is being observed, in detail and real time, at the level of genes. Evolution is continuing, rapidly, with the virus as the chief protagonist.
The disintegration of a near-ubiquitous world-view presents a curious spectacle. While science is providing a clearer picture of evolution at work than ever before, the impact of the pandemic is to reinforce archetypal fantasies in which evils and misfortunes are blamed on hidden forces and secret cabals. If there is evolution in ideas, it works to propagate some of the worst human beings have conceived.
With the aid of growing scientific knowledge, human beings can protect themselves from the virus and renew a reasonably secure way of life. Heroic dedication by doctors, nurses and other defenders of public health has been vitally important in coping with the pandemic. But adjusting to the irreversible changes the pandemic brings will demand clear-headed realism. Clinging to a cod-scientific view of evolution is a hindrance to the task ahead, which is adjusting to a world in which the virus is endemic.
In April 2020 I wrote in the New Statesman: “The belief that this crisis can be solved by an unprecedented outbreak of international cooperation is magical thinking in its purest form.” (“Why this crisis is a turning point in history”, 3 April 2020). Vaccine wars were wholly predictable, but the same magical thinking is expressed in the slogan that no one will be safe from the virus until everyone is safe. ”
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/2021/03/can-humanity-conquer-virus
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This is a superb interview brought to my attention by Nehemiah @ OFW on monetary system problems and probable outcomes.
I like Brent Johnson’s perspective despite the fact that he appears to be unaware (or in denial) that growth is over due to energy depletion.
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Art Berman knows energy, and if he says failure of wind generation was a key trigger for the Texas outage, I believe him.
https://www.artberman.com/2021/03/03/texas-power-grid-train-wreck/
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Since most of Art’s analysis is behind a paywall I don’t know if he addressed the “political” aspect of Texas’s problem. I thought Tim Watkins analysis was better. As Tim stated, other colder climate providers know how to handle deep freezes (their coal fired plants and natural gas plants keep running). Texas, since it officially denies climate change, probably doesn’t prepare well for extreme cold for multiple days? Tim suggested that wind was a small portion of the problem whereas Art seems to blame most of it on wind/solar (yes, they are intermittent but considering how small a portion of the “Texas grid” they are it would seem they shouldn’t get the largest blame?? – seems political since the governor tried to blame them too.). I think the real political problem was that Texas is so anti-federal that they did not tie Texas to the larger U.S. grid so that they could (for purely political reasons? (or so unscrupulous providers could screw the users??)) run their own show, free from federal regs. So, unless Art castigates the Texas system I think he has it wrong. IMHO.
AJ
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You might be right but I don’t recall Art being political in the past.
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Art’s a straight shooter IMO. The blackout is multifaceted & was long in the making (privatization-greed, deferred maintenance, corrupt & incompetent bureaucracy, etc) but it don’t happen w/o climate change.
Another week & it’ll go down the memory hole with all the other 21st century AGW jacked disasters.
It’s getting crowded in the memory hole.
Memory hole 2019
No End in Sight for Record Midwest Flood Crisis
High waters continue to swamp towns and agricultural fields throughout the Mississippi basin
“It doesn’t require a hydrologist to know how the 2019 flood differs from previous high-water events. The mayors have lived it close up. They have comforted friends, family and neighbors and tried not to break promises that their communities will rebuild.”
“With prior floods, “it was a nuisance and then we were back in business,” he added. “But the duration [of this flood] wears and tears on the minds of not only the business owners but the homeowners. I know several that are done.”
“He stressed that the 2019 flood has a rare distinction as a “total system flood,” meaning every sub-basin of the Mississippi River has been subject to high water, exacerbating conditions in Southern states like Mississippi and Louisiana.
“There is more water that has passed under the Vicksburg bridge during this flood than in the 2008 and 2011 floods combined,” Gartman said. “That gives you testimony of the duration of this flood.”
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/no-end-in-sight-for-record-midwest-flood-crisis/
The Texas blackout is small potatoes compared to the flooding in 2019.
What’s really scary is what’s to come with the flooding in America. A major disaster is pretty much a certainty since it would take (more) hydraulic engineering of monumental proportions to control the flooding to come courtesy of climate change and our neo hydrological cycle.
The 3 part series below is very informative.
America’s Achilles’ Heel: the Mississippi River’s Old River Control Structure
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Americas-Achilles-Heel-Mississippi-Rivers-Old-River-Control-Structure
Escalating Floods Putting Mississippi River’s Old River Control Structure at Risk
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Escalating-Floods-Putting-Mississippi-Rivers-Old-River-Control-Structure-Risk
If the Old River Control Structure Fails: A Catastrophe With Global Impact
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/If-Old-River-Control-Structure-Fails-Catastrophe-Global-Impact
On a happier note, some wetlands will be making a comeback.
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Good point.
It’s become very difficult to keep an eye on the important things. There’s so much going on now. It’ll get really interesting when there are liquid fuel shortages. People in LA will go bat shit crazy.
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New old song from my favorite band.
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Flashback 2015
On the Supersonic Track to Extinction
“Where is the “Misanthropocene” right now in relation to past extinction events? The chart below tells the tale. Notice that our current rise in GHG’s is essentially instantaneous in relation to past warmings which took place over thousands of years. As far as scientists can tell, the current warming from industrial civilization is the most rapid in geologic time. Ice core and marine sediment data in the paleoclimatology archive have revealed brief periods of rapid warming and there is no reason to believe modern man is immune to such catastrophic and abrupt climate events. In fact, we know that the Arctic is already warming twice as fast as anywhere else on the planet. Earth sensitivity to climate change is now thought to be possibly double that of previous estimates. An entirely different planet can result from just a slight change in temperature:
We’re about halfway towards the same CO2 levels as the Paleocene Thermal Extinction, but our speed of trajectory surpasses even that of the Permian Extinction:
https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2015/01/15/on-the-supersonic-track-to-extinction/
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xraymike79 is writing about genetic reality denial without being aware that’s the topic:
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mike knows, but he began with an anti capitalist agenda and, due to the evidence, acknowledged that the humans are not in control. That said, he never stopped his criticism of capitalism’s many wrong doings and showing the link between capitalism and planetary destruction.
It’s hard to argue against the evidence that no system speeds us towards the endtimes as efficiently as capitalism does. mike is American & anti imperialism is a big part of his beef with capitalism too.
I had featured Varki’s book for discussion on mikes blog before I ran into you. We covered tons of stuff on the MPP, evolution & human behaviour there.
IMO, mike is one of the smartest doomers I’ve come across. Excellent writer, very insightful, does his homework & provides supporting material.
I see mike posting on reddit from time to time, but I don’t know why he stopped blogging.
Like you & James, mike was asked by other doomer bloggers to do audio or video interviews, but h said NO too. (chicken shits 😉
Your core pet project, thesis or whatever you want to call it is Denial. xraymikes was capitalism. I’ve heard both of you grudgingly concede that humans look to be unable to change to save ourselves, but 15 minutes later y’all are back on topic. Me too. No matter how much evidence piles up to support a deterministic view, I just can’t stay in that mindset for any length of time. My brain won’t let me. It wants me to find a target & write a scathing rant about how the target is way more guilty than me & other lowly commoners & should be punished harshly – preferably live streamed with scantily clad cheerleaders on the sidelines.
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I didn’t mean to imply that I don’t respect mike. I very much do.
My little niche in the world is to discuss a theory that I think is probably true that says humans exist with uniquely powerful intelligence, and wacky beliefs that cancel out the usefulness of our high intelligence, because we evolved to deny unpleasant realities.
I like to point out that many, if not all, intelligent aware people that write about overshoot discuss reality denial without drawing a connection to Varki’s MORT. I guess it’s a little corner I’ve eked out in which I like to think I have a better understanding of what’s going on, and despite my corner being small, it has huge explanatory powers for everything that matters. On other topics, the other person usually has a better understanding than me.
With regard to capitalism, I find criticism of it tiresome because they miss the real point, which you get. All “isms” strive for infinite growth on a finite planet, the only difference being how the booty is distributed. Capitalism won out because it destroys the planet the fastest.
My guess is that xraymike79 stopped writing for the same reason Paul Chefurka and other greats stopped writing. Nothing’s going to change for the better, and everything will be worse soon, so it’s wise to enjoy life now, rather than wasting time worrying about what’s coming. I may join them.
I hope you’re still thinking about a writing a guest post. It would be nice to see your ideas consolidated and polished into one essay, rather than randomly sprinkled across hundreds of comments.
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Don’t stop blogging! You are not wasting your time. The posts and the discussions that follow provide consolation that what we as individuals see is not truly delusional (as my wife tells me it is at every opportunity) and gives a better understanding of reality (which helps with the loneliness).
AJ
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It’s true. I see people all around me ignoring and/or denying what appears to me to be obvious factual information (none of it good) and I keep wondering “maybe I’m the crazy one.” Megacancer and Undenial are my 2 favorite blogs, because my highly-tuned bullshit detector is triggered the least.
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It would be sad if you stopped writing :|. I almost never comment but I am avid reader. You are the last site when subjects make… hmmm… common sense? Year after year some excellent blogger drops out :|. Last year I visited almost daily two sites, but when M* blog became harbour for people who hate Jews, blacks, women, etc and who preach that virus must be Jews/Chinese/Rich/Democrats/Gates*-made – I gave up on it.
Sure I love writings of Sam Carana, Alice Friedmann, Andrew Glikson and a few others, but they are rather focused on their areas of expertise.
As everything in man’s world is based on denial 😉 , at your blog one can read about everything from more philosophical perspective.
choose your favourite
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Thanks for popping up with the kind words. Much appreciated.
I share your views on M*. I love the Jekyll but not the Hyde.
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Rob, I never took your comment as disrespectful towards xraymike in the slightest. I was assuming you were not familiar with xraymike & CoIC blog. I should not have assumed anything – mea culpa.
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Thanks. I try to be economical with words because I hate long winded writing, but being terse runs the risk of misunderstandings.
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I am with Rob on this one. Paleolithic, Mesolithic, Neolithic, Hydraulic, Feudal, CAPITALIST, Fascist, Socialist, Neo-liberal – doesn’t matter. All these systems are prey to the same unconscious, impersonal forces that inevitably lead to overshoot.
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Yes, and for me the most interesting question is what blocks our amazing intelligence from acknowledging and acting on (or even whispering about) human overshoot, when we regularly acknowledge and act on the overshoot of other species.
It’s fascinating how a powerful general purpose computing machine can aggressively and ubiquitously deny unpleasant realities.
My theory is that the Maximum Power Principle (MPP) is the master law in all life, and that intelligence (or any other trait) can evolve provided it does not conflict with the MPP. The trick evolution found for creating behaviorally modern humans with their outsized intelligence was to evolve a tendency to deny unpleasant realities. Humans can thus use their intelligence to outcompete all other species, and to maximize growth, regardless of the negative consequences, which is consistent with the MPP.
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It is a great blog. Hope you keep it up.
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The human species is a short circuit on the battery we call Earth.
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What is magical thinking and do we grow out of it?
“Eventually we are supposed to grow up. And most of us like to believe that as adults, our opinions, understanding or attitudes are grounded in solid realistic principles. However, it may come as a huge shock that most adults (even extremely well educated ones) will hold on to their favourite magical thinking quirks, and/or quickly fall back on magical thinking – especially in times of high emotion/stress, or where clear links are difficult to elucidate.”
“Some forms of magical thinking are more culturally accepted than others, as comedian Arj Barker points out here in the hypocrisy behind mainstream religion’s criticism of Scientology:
https://theconversation.com/what-is-magical-thinking-and-do-we-grow-out-of-it-35384
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Recently I was inspired by the Tim Watkins and his blog. And while they are always read-worthy it was not about some specific blog entry but the name of his blog (Yes, ‘The Consciousness of Sheep’). For all of us who don’t know it’s basically the idea of how sheep might think of the farmer who feeds them as servant only to be slaughtered soon after.
Just as we humans like to think that the whole universe is only there for us and our enjoyment. Which is ironic since we arguably at the same time know that the universe doesn’t care about our well-being at all and only wants one thing from us, the same it wants from every single thing else, entropy. Why? Who knows, but it soothing to my soul to realize that all the pollution, destruction and rapacious behavior at least has a grand reason.
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I’ve had similar thoughts in the past. It’s very very cool to have an evolved computing machine that can understand all of this.
https://un-denial.com/2014/02/11/the-universe-and-its-purpose/
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I keep running into smart people who think “The Fourth Turning” by Strauss and Howe is a profoundly important book.
I’ve avoided it because I said to myself anyone who thinks they can detect repeatable cycles in a one-time 200 year extravaganza powered by non-renewable energy is an idiot.
After running into yet another person today speaking highly of it I decided to download the audiobook and see what all the hullaballoo is about.
LOL, I found this comment on the download thread:
http://audiobookbay.nl/audio-books/the-fourth-turning-what-the-cycles-of-history-tell-us-about-americas-next-rendezvous-with-destiny-william-strauss-neil-howe/
I’ll read and let you know if Apneaman and my instincts are right.
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I read “The Fourth turning” and it’s complete bullshit. Just anecdotes from history used to construct a gigantic pattern (not a model) that they impose on the reality.
Here is a simple thing – they use newspaper articles from the past to support their hypotheses.
Imagine reading The New York Times in the eve of Iraq invasion and taking that as basis for historical fact.
There is one thing that they mention which is important (they talk about it in the preface). Most historians in the past have noticed cycles and recurrences and there are some patterns to it. Modern so called historians ignore that and instead focus on “progress” or post-modernism.
So read a historian that talks about cycles of civilizations and learn from it. Ignore this book.
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Thanks! Sounds like I’ll be quitting the book soon after I start.
I often say that if you don’t understand energy, you understand nothing. This applies to all disciplines including historians. Civilization grows and contracts with the energy it can capture.
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Bullshit that Biosphere Bannon raves about. Books with”Prophesy” in the title should be viewed with suspicion and contempt.
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It’s a favorite book of Chris Martenson.
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Narrator: Solo retired man walking on secluded beach runs into solo retired woman walking in opposite direction. They strike up a conversation and check each other out.
Her: Sure a lot of problems in the world. Him: Yes, it’s bad and getting worse.
Him: I’ve visited this beach since 1962. It used to be vibrant with life but is mostly dead now. Her: Yes, it’s sad.
Her: There’s too many people. Him: Yes, we need to get the population down.
Him: Problem is there’s no one we can vote for that understands the problem. Her: I agree.
Narrator: Conversation is getting warmer, possible friendship forming.
Him: I figured out why we collectively don’t discuss overshoot and why most of us believe in life after death. There’s this new theory by Dr. Ajit Varki….
Narrator: A curtain comes down over the woman’s eyes and the conversation turns chilly. Pleasantries are exchanged and the walkers continue on in opposite directions.
Her to herself: Why do I always meet crazy guys?
Him to himself: I like being single.
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LMFAO Rob. Just classic. [I right clicked on both photographs and opened the large versions in new tabs. They’re really great, especially the driftwood.]
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Sad. I sometimes wonder if it would be better to be single and lonely or with someone and have all your thinking constantly repudiated in words and deeds. Each side of this divide has some advantages.
AJ
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I think it’s possible to be single, happy, and not lonely. A half full glass can make you happy or sad, depending on how you chose to look at it.
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Gazing at a half glass of Arbor Gold will make you happy. And in the immortal words of Tyrion Lannister, “A girlfriend would be nice…but I’m already in a serious relationship with alcohol and bad decisions.”
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LMAO 🙂
When the end is near I’m going to start drinking again with gusto.
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Python springs to mind. You don’t have to go leaping straight for Varki like a bull at the gate.
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Foreplay is a waste of time. 🙂
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Thanks to Nehemiah @ OFW for this…
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The evidence in favor of Ivermectin is now so strong that we can draw conclusions about the competency and/or motives of our health officials if they do not act.
My personal view is that health officials are not evil and not very bright.
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“not evil” – is that denial kicking in?
If you have ever seen children piling up on someone weaker (laughing or disparaging or even physically attacking him/her) then you know that being evil can be as natural as being good.
My assumption is that everyone with power will abuse it for pleasure or for gain. Yes, I am sometimes pleasantly surprised but less than 50%.
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Maybe. It seems implausible that health officials from hundreds of countries are all uniformly evil. I can’t speak for other countries, but I don’t think our Canadian health officials are evil.
Low intelligence coupled with group think is more plausible. It’s mostly C students that run our governments.
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C students and lawyers. I (a biology undergrad with a chem minor) was on an elevator going to the CA bar exam and one of my fellow test (masochistic ordeal) takers remarked that she was a going to be a lawyer because she was bad at math. I thought she was pretty representative of what I observed in the legal profession-good with words, not so much with science and math. I too think that most of the advice on Covid is slanted by group think and the Pharma/Med establishment money/punishment system. Keeps 95% in line with the propaganda.
AJ
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I never buy arguments that disparage people’s intelligence. Yes, it might make you feel superior but why not give the people the benefit of the doubt?
Idk about ivermectin so here is an example about reopening the schools. The quality of remote education is dismal and the kids are psychologically hurt by the lack of socializing. And yet the teachers union don’t want to go back to school. This while the head of the teachers union joins other famous figures (like Ca governor) in sending his kids to private school where they attend in person.
Is it stupidity or a conspiracy? Or is it simply the fact that the teachers want to stay home and be paid for doing 2-3 hours of blabbing in front of a camera.
And in US at least no medical authority ever cared about people. They just cared about money – look at all the scandals surrounding low-fat, sugar, corn syrup, cholesterol medicines, psychotropic drugs for kids etc. I honestly cannot find an example where they actually did something to help people.
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And I don’t buy arguments that assume people are mostly amoral and greedy. I see much more evidence in Canada of health officials with good intentions that simply don’t think or question anything.
Perhaps it’s different in the US. The little I know about Fauci makes me suspect he is corrupt. Ditto for Ancel Keys.
The few teachers I know here in B.C. feel very exposed because there’s lots of Covid in some of the schools, and because they don’t force kids to wear masks.
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Rob said: “And I don’t buy arguments that assume people are mostly amoral and greedy.”
Did you notice you changed the subject? I was talking about people in position of power, you are talking about general population.
Even in the general population, a large majority has no inner moral code, instead using cues from peers and leaders (I read this in Sapolski but if I understand correctly, it’s accepted as basic psychology).
As for the teachers feeling exposed – how come the essential workers go to work every day and risk their lives (I am using your assumption here that Covid is dangerous), but teachers are cowards? Is the future of the kids so unimportant?
Not to mention that all the studies made show that kids are basically never transmitting the disease.
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Please use one name on this site. It’s confusing having a conversation with someone that uses various names.
Sorry, I didn’t intend to change the topic. I don’t think it changes my point because there’s not much difference between leaders and citizens.
I don’t want to engage further on teachers. I just wanted to say that the one teacher I know is genuinely worried, is not lazy, and teaches every day in a small classroom with kids that regularly test positive.
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That last sentence may not be true. See B117 and children. “All” is a very strong word.
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Dr Fauci & Dr Bonny may be the top Gov health officials, but they are still only advisors, not law makers. The politicians make the calls & they have plenty of others ‘advising’ them including special interest
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HA HA science proves me right again – I am Mighty!
My nieces listen to all that shite. I kinda feel sorry for them. They don’ t know what they’re missing.
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I basically agree, Apneaman. There are, however, exceptions, such as Radiohead, whose eight consecutive albums from “The Bends” through “A Moon Shaped Pool” (although “The King of Limbs” is relatively weak) are consistently outstanding in regards to harmonic complexity and timbral diversity (not to mention other wonderful sonic and musical qualities).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiohead_discography
Another exception is the band Tortoise, who I’ve had the pleasure of seeing live in a small club here in Omaha, and who are simply fantastic (especially “TNT”):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tortoise_(band)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TNT_(Tortoise_album)
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Sure there are exceptions, but how do you find them without having to listen to the radio or following music critics? I don’t know.
How did you hear about Radiohead?
Sometimes I stumble across talented musicians on youtube and such. People that don’t fit the music industry mould. Some of them can make a living by getting exposure on youtube they would otherwise not get.
Stumbled across this talented lady a couple years back.
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Mean Mary’s very good.
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Thanks for the Radiohead tip. I’ll add them to my library.
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Tim Watkins is good today. I like his explanation for why economic growth is so sensitive to the price of energy.
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2021/03/09/a-zero-sum-game/
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Not sure about this analogy. There were THREE astronauts on the Apollo 13 crew. Similar age, similar background. Supported by brilliant, problem solving minds at Mission Control (again similar ages, similar backgrounds) pursing ONE goal, solving ONE multi-component problem operating within a tightly controlled time-frame. How is that anything like the global economy/energy market supporting 7.9 billion people, 195 independent sovereign nations vis-à-vis decision making?
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This kid rocks.
Climate Activist Spends 589 Days And Counting Picking Up Litter In Calif. Park
“After spending 589 consecutive days picking up litter at one of Los Angeles County’s most popular hiking spots, 20-year-old Edgar McGregor says the park is clean of municipal waste. But his job is far from over.
The climate activist, who says he has autism, made the trip to Eaton Canyon — part of the Angeles National Forest in southern California — throughout the pandemic and in extreme weather, picking up litter left behind by visitors and posting his progress on social media.
He announced on Friday that there was no more trash to be found, but that he plans to return several times a week for maintenance while also turning his attention to new parks.”
https://www.npr.org/2021/03/08/974901455/climate-change-activist-spends-589-days-and-counting-picking-up-litter-in-calif
I think of all the enviro advocates jabbering away online or jetting off to the next, mean nothing, conference then compare them to Edgar and ask myself who has the mental health disorder?
You go Edgar!
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When I crashed 10 years ago I went through a phase where I walked the trails near my home with a big green garbage bag picking up trash. It was definitely therapeutic.
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Twilight of the American empire
After years of liberal imperialism, the US has finally overstretched itself
“…China’s rise “suggests that we can no longer claim with confidence that economic prosperity and political freedoms can only go hand in hand”.
“The pursuit of global hegemony since the end of the Cold War has seen the United States overstretch itself, taken on unsustainable levels of debt to fund its military expansion, eroded the country’s image abroad, militarised policing at home, enabled the rise of China and fostered disillusionment and political radicalism in America.”
“How does this end for America? Biden and the presidents after him will be forced to make a hard choice: whether to retrench to a smaller and more manageable empire, or to risk a far greater and more dramatic collapse in defence of global hegemony.”
https://unherd.com/2021/03/twilight-of-the-american-empire/
Not one maleducated expert predicted a free market communist ruled China. It’s not supposed to happen – it’s unnatural!
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The interview I posted above with Brent Johnson provides an intelligent counter argument for why the US will stay on top until it collapses along with everyone else. I tend to agree with Johnson. If you had to hold your savings in one of yuan, euros, or $US, which would you choose? Most global citizens dislike US behavior but they’d still pick $US.
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Could happen that way.
Military misadventures have sped a number of empires to rapid ruin. They’re quite popular with the men for some reason.
Who knows. One button push & the nuke dominoes could fall. It’s almost happened before.
I’m just a spectator with a few one liners.
SOLD OUT
https://www.mint.ca/store/product/productListing.jsp?_DARGS=/store/product/productListingDetails.jsp.refreshForm
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I assume that’s a link to gold for sale. The site’s down LOL!
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Most of the coins are sold out. Why is that?
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If you expect high inflation then gold is one of the best protections. Most people today expect high inflation. My guess is they’re wrong and we’ll have a deflationary crash first. Then at a date later, after politicians have responded with helicopter money, we’ll have high inflation.
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Featured in Aeon online magazine (video) is that German theoretical physicist Rob’s so sweet on.
Sabine Hossenfelder: searching for beauty in mathematics
Against ‘beauty’ in science – how striving for elegance stifles progress
That there is an inherent ‘beauty’ and ‘elegance’ to the laws of nature is a view that permeates the field of physics. But, according to the German theoretical physicist Sabine Hossenfelder, the notion that the further you peer into reality, the easier the equation gets, has no basis in reality. Indeed, since the mid-20th-century, the maths of physics has become increasingly knotty, even as many physicists have continued to search for a path back to simplicity. In this interview with Robert Lawrence Kuhn for the PBS series Closer to Truth, Hossenfelder makes the case that this fixation on beauty isn’t just misguided – it’s stifling scientific progress.
https://aeon.co/videos/against-beauty-in-science-how-striving-for-elegance-stifles-progress
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I’ve read her book twice and will no doubt go back a third or fourth time. The book is dense and hard to fully understand but it’s very satisfying letting her summary of the pinnacle of human intellectual accomplishment wash over you.
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Michael Dowd has produced a new video on overshoot. I left the following comment in YouTube.
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Here’s another amazing example of reality denial.
I’ve been recently listening to a bunch of smart people passionately debate the pros and cons of bitcoin.
Not one person, not a single one, discussed what I think is the main risk they should be considering.
When the financial system crashes, as it must eventually, the grids in many countries will become unreliable.
When people become aware that they cannot depend on the internet 24/7, the value of bitcoin will trend to zero, exactly when they need the savings they’ve stored in bitcoin.
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Everything’s becoming dumbed down.
Modern Marvels is the best ever TV series on engineering and technology. It began in 1995, produced about 650 episodes of which I have about 400 in my library, and then quit about 2010.
I’m seeing a few new 2021 episodes on cable now. They are complete crap produced by idiots for idiots. The old episodes were dense with well researched information.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Marvels
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When we talk TV shows, did you watch the new Adam Curtis ‘Can’t get you out of my head’ yet? While I don’t think will top ‘The Century of the Self’ I look forward to it.
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I got into it about an hour and quit. Curtis was making a few interesting points but they were too infrequent to spend another 7 hours. I’ll probably try it again in the future. Let us know what you thought of it.
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Very good interview on the virus origin.
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Wow, first time I’ve listened to Rogan. This was a good interview. Too bad Metzl wasn’t able to get traction a year ago. This is the same stuff that Chris Martenson was saying a year ago. Basically, his take was that there are all sorts of players with conflicts of interest (WHO, some scientists), who we should be skeptical about what they say vis-a-vis, the origin. He always said to go with the science and almost all the time linked to the journal articles.
Great video. Thanks.
AJ
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Rogan has the most popular podcast on the planet. He recently moved from YouTube to Spotify for a gazillion dollars. It’s usually very good when he’s not talking about aliens and MMA.
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Ah come on…have you have seen Demetrious Mighty Mouse’s Championship Highlights?
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This guy seems to have some legitimate concerns about our vaccine policy. I was reluctant to post this because there are so many whack jobs in this space but I listened to it 3 times and I think he might be legit.
He’s not questioning the safety or effectiveness of the vaccines. He’s saying that vaccines are the wrong weapon for our enemy, and may create new more serious problems.
Anyone know more about this than me?
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Here’s another (better) interview with Geert Bossche.
h/t to commenter @ OFW
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My take away:
Plan on being careful for several more years, and continue to prep for much darker clouds.
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Will more of what helped get us into this mess get us out? Well here’s a mess that all our chemicals got us into that should help with the over population problem.
https://journal-neo.org/2021/03/09/will-mankind-be-extinct-in-a-few-years/
Been reading about this for a decade or so and like so many other problems we’ve created with our technology the rate seems to be speeding up. It has created problems for other species as well. We keep shooting ourselves in the foot or in this case the testicles.
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Definitely something big going on. Peanut allergies and learning disorders and obesity were uncommon when I was a child in elementary school.
I suspect glyphosate is one piece of the puzzle. The article doesn’t mention it but farming practices have changed in the last 10 years. They now use glyphosate to desiccate some grain crops right before they’re harvested. This increases the yield a little and reduces weather risk for the farmer, but it means that some grains are sprayed right before they go into the food chain. Tests show that the one of the worst sources of glyphosate is a favorite food moms give to their babies: Cheerios. I only eat organic oats now.
Another irony that the article missed is that it is probably safer to eat GMO grains because the most common function of GMO is glyphosate resistance which means you can’t desiccate GMO crops with glyphosate right before harvest.
They do use glyphosate on GMO crops early in the growth cycle to suppress weeds until the crops get big enough to outcompete the weeds, which is a much safer way to use glyphosate.
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Call me evil, but this doesn’t make me horrified.
50% children less?? 50% less beings. That would mean 50% less people to suffer. And each year they would suffer more and more.
So no, this is not a bad news 🙂 .
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http://benjaminthedonkey-limericksofdoom.blogspot.com/2021/03/ic.html
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I submit to you Rob, a worthy addition to your sidebar quotes. On…da-dum-da-dum…..Denial. Our favorite topic. From Dan Brooks: Parasitologist, evolutionary biologist, author, winner of numerous academic awards.
“The Neocortex lets us imagine our own mortality; the brain stem keeps us from believing it.”
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Thanks, I’ll add it after I understand it. Why does he think the mechanism for blocking unpleasant realities exists in the brain stem? Or this just a metaphor for primitive instinct?
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Yes, I’d say its a metaphor for instinct. Phylogenetically older systems (fish and reptile brain) are still online, running scripts and sub-routines in the basement. And those scripts are powerful. Old organs like the amygdala for instance, are so cued in to survival that in times of stress (and life is one big stress test) they override more recent brain architecture concerned with higher thinking. Maybe he also saying the brain stem is so ancient, so fundamental, so embedded, that it takes precedence over the neo-cortex. Neuters it, kicks its ass. So ultimately the old brain stem takes precedence, we embrace optimism and ignore unpleasant realities/threats that are not directly in our face. No near term adaptive advantage to do otherwise.
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That’s consistent with Varki’s speculation that denial of unpleasant realities could have been implemented by a tweak to the fear suppression module that mammals engage when they have to fight.
I speculate that whatever the mechanism, it needs to be fairly simple for evolution to implement because behaviorally modern humans emerged in a very short period about 1-200,000 thousand years ago.
Quote added to the sidebar.
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A true Canadian patriot
Conspiracy Theorist Who Stormed Trudeau’s Property Sentenced to Six Years
Corey Hurren posted about Event 201—a conspiracy that posits the COVID-19 pandemic was planned—shortly before storming the property the Prime Minister lives on with his family.
“The man who drove his truck through the gates of Rideau Hall—where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau lives with his family—and had an armed standoff with police was sentenced to six years today.
Corey Hurren, a 46-year-old Canadian Armed Forces reservist, posted conspiracy content on social media shortly before ramming the gates. He pleaded guilty to seven firearms charges in February and mischief. When he was arrested, he was armed with three long guns, including a semi-automatic rifle, and had said that he was prepared to die during the standoff with police. Hurren said he was hoping to “speak” to Trudeau when he stormed the property. The prime minister nor his family were at Rideau Hall during the time of his attack. ”
https://www.vice.com/en/article/m7aydq/corey-hurren-conspiracy-theorist-who-stormed-justin-trudeaus-property-sentenced-to-six-years
Hey Corey……
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Raúl Ilargi Meijer from the Automatic earth had a copy of the open letter by a virologist Geert Vanden Bossche. It is a little easier to follow without the accent in the video.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2021/03/mass-vaccination-amidst-a-pandemic-creates-an-irrepressible-monster/
Tom Lewis also has a good one today from The Daily Impact from the latest self driving miracle the Tesla.
http://www.dailyimpact.net/2021/03/11/you-gonna-believe-me-or-your-lyin-eyes-its-driverless/
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Thanks, nice to have the letter by Bossche.
I read that the market cap of Tesla is higher than all the US oil companies combined.
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Higher than all US car companies combined–at least at one point.
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Here is the open letter by Geert Bossche pasted in full.
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This is an important statement. Thanks for posting it, Rob.
“Paradoxically, the only intervention that could offer a perspective to end this pandemic (other than to let it run its disastrous course) is …VACCINATION.” Precisely. I very much like his idea to use NK cell-based vaccines as a potential solution (or part of the solution set) to this viral pandemic.
I disagree with Geert that SARS-CoV-2 [not SARS-COVID-2, as Geert stated] is “a relatively harmless virus”, particularly for those suffering from extended/long COVID, and other long-term health consequences we’re not even aware of yet.
It will be exceptionally interesting (terrifying?) to see if Geert’s prediction (of disastrous public health consequences from the broad application of current vaccines) does or doesn’t play out.
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Depending on how other scientists and authorities respond, this may prove to be one of the best examples of Varki’s MORT theory.
Of course, nothing beats our denial of human overshoot (and mortality).
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What’s worse than a vaccine that doesn’t work? A vaccine that only half works. — Will Thomson
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Came across a very good article on why we aren’t going to tech our way out of our various predicaments we have especially when you have a hard time getting a handful of people to agree on anything. Lots of links to back up statements and one leading to Al Bartlett then from there to you Rob and your site. https://problemspredicamentsandtechnology.blogspot.com/2021/02/what-would-it-take-for-humanity-to.html?m=1
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How My People Became the World’s Greatest Idiots
Why America and Britain are Global Laughingstocks
“Sorry. I’m going to apologise up front, because I have to say something ugly. But necessary. If I don’t say it, I feel like my head’s going to explode.
My people, Anglo-Americans, have become the world’s and this age’s most spectacular, gigantic, colossal, hateful, preening, grinning, violent idiots. My people are the great, historic idiots of now. They’re idiots to an incredible degree: cheering each other on all the way to the cliff’s edge, and then jumping, hand-in-hand into the abyss. And then roaring in delight all the way down the abyss. By and large, my people don’t know the most basic thing about the modern world, they don’t want to know why it matters, and they don’t even want to know why they don’t know it. Do you know what that blinding level of wilful ignorance makes a person? You guessed it, an idiot.”
I’m going to put this one to you a little bit more formally. If we know — empirically, factually — that the European and Canadian way works much, much better than the Anglo-American way, what are we really saying? Let’s say it the way pundits would — because it will reveal a truth they never tell you, at least in Anglo-American culture, which is my people are so painfully, tragically dumb.
Social democracy works. “Conservatism” doesn’t. What unites Britain and America? They are the world’s two most conservative rich countries —and outside maybe Iran and Pakistan, some of the most conservative now. It’s not some kind of cosmic coincidence that they’ve plunged into collapse simultaneously. It tells us that “conservatism” is the modern world’s biggest failure.
If Anglo-American conservatives were right, then Europe and Canada would be the failed states, and America and Britain the successful, happy, wealthy societies. Of course, the precise opposite is true.
https://eand.co/how-my-people-became-the-worlds-greatest-idiots-5073de68fb3e
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